Climate Predictions for South Ribble

The latest available Met Office data (March 2026) for the South Ribble suggests that over the coming years the Borough will experience increasing summer and winter temperatures, decreasing summer rainfall, increasing winter rainfall and increasing sea levels. The predicted levels of these changes are summarised below with more details in figure 3.

  • Temperatures will rise in all scenarios, with the biggest increases in the 4°C scenario.
  • Summers will get hotter and drier as warming increases.
  • Winters will become warmer and wetter, especially at higher warming levels.
  • Sea levels around our coastlines and estuaries will rise.
  • While the ranges show uncertainty, the direction of change is consistent.

 

1.5 degrees warming

2 degrees warming

4 degrees warming

Annual average temperatures

0.6°C to 1.3°C rise

0.9°C to 1. 8°C rise

2.5°C to 3.6°C rise

Average summer temperatures

0.6°C to 1.8°C rise

0.7°C to 2.3°C rise

2.9°C to 4.3°C rise

Winter average temperatures

0.3°C to 1.3°C rise

0.6°C to 1.9°C rise

1.7°C to 3.3°C rise

Summer maximum temperatures

0.7°C to 3.4°C rise

1.1°C to 4.2°C rise

4.6°C to 7.3°C rise

Winter minimum temperatures

0.3°C to 2.2°C rise

0.8°C to 2.9°C rise

2.5°C to 4.4°C rise

Summer rainfall totals

23% fall to 17% rise

20% fall to 5% rise

12% to 37% fall

Winter rainfall totals

1% fall to 25% rise

3% to 31% rise

23% to 50% rise

 

 

2030

2050

2080

Sea level rise affecting the Ribble Estuary

14cm to 22cm rise

23cm to 41cm rise

38 to 81cm rise

Sea level data taken from Sefton Council and Fylde Council data sets. Figures given against the 1981 – 2000 baseline                             

Met Office - Explore the Climate of your Local Authority