Climate Predictions for South Ribble
The latest available Met Office data (March 2026) for the South Ribble suggests that over the coming years the Borough will experience increasing summer and winter temperatures, decreasing summer rainfall, increasing winter rainfall and increasing sea levels. The predicted levels of these changes are summarised below with more details in figure 3.
- Temperatures will rise in all scenarios, with the biggest increases in the 4°C scenario.
- Summers will get hotter and drier as warming increases.
- Winters will become warmer and wetter, especially at higher warming levels.
- Sea levels around our coastlines and estuaries will rise.
- While the ranges show uncertainty, the direction of change is consistent.
|
|
1.5 degrees warming |
2 degrees warming |
4 degrees warming |
|
Annual average temperatures |
0.6°C to 1.3°C rise |
0.9°C to 1. 8°C rise |
2.5°C to 3.6°C rise |
|
Average summer temperatures |
0.6°C to 1.8°C rise |
0.7°C to 2.3°C rise |
2.9°C to 4.3°C rise |
|
Winter average temperatures |
0.3°C to 1.3°C rise |
0.6°C to 1.9°C rise |
1.7°C to 3.3°C rise |
|
Summer maximum temperatures |
0.7°C to 3.4°C rise |
1.1°C to 4.2°C rise |
4.6°C to 7.3°C rise |
|
Winter minimum temperatures |
0.3°C to 2.2°C rise |
0.8°C to 2.9°C rise |
2.5°C to 4.4°C rise |
|
Summer rainfall totals |
23% fall to 17% rise |
20% fall to 5% rise |
12% to 37% fall |
|
Winter rainfall totals |
1% fall to 25% rise |
3% to 31% rise |
23% to 50% rise |
|
|
2030 |
2050 |
2080 |
|
Sea level rise affecting the Ribble Estuary |
14cm to 22cm rise |
23cm to 41cm rise |
38 to 81cm rise |
Sea level data taken from Sefton Council and Fylde Council data sets. Figures given against the 1981 – 2000 baseline
Met Office - Explore the Climate of your Local Authority